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Friday, May 27, 2011

Kevin Kolb: Fool's Gold.

Kevin Kolb is about to get rich. I don't mean just average NFL rich, I am talking Silly, power ball rich. He will be traded and the team that gets him will most likely give up a first round pick and sign him to a 5-7 year contract. I am guessing he may get to the tune of 60-70 million. The question remains: Is he worth it? He is the beneficiary of a very thing QB free agency market and to me is is the media's darling and NOT a fail proof, sure fire franchise QB. Let's not forget the Kolb has been a back up for the majority of his career. Yes, he played behind two very good QB's in Mcnabb and Vick but when he did play his numbers were, well, average. In his 4 year career he has 2082 passing yds and a td/int ratio of 11/14. I am not a math major, but I do not see glaring numbers that jump off the page. I can think of two back up QB's that were traded recently that have played well last year and that is Schaub out of Houston and Cassell in Kansas City. The jury is still out on both if they can be winners. They have 1 combined playoff appearance ( as starters) and it was a loss.So, history is now against Kolb. I do like the intangible that Kolb brings as a vocal leader, high energy and smart kid, but he has struggled against alot of cover two looks and I am not talking about Tampa two but your highschool level cover two. He seems to lock on to his primary read far too long when he sees zone. He should make one read and based on that read he will either hit his wr in the window or comeback to the underneth WR that should be trailing through the zone. When he is up against man to man, this is where he excels. He DOES have above average accuracy, which to me is NUMBER1 when it come to the attribute you want in your QB, but defenses will ultimately see his weakness and very well could confuse him with a man up, umbrella zone underneath with two safeties. The best situation for him would be to go to a team that is a DECENT, game handling QB away from competing. Arizona jumps off the page at me. They have Fitz who is one of the top 5 WR's in the league and in his prime. Arizona does not have a powerhouse defense that is going to only give up 14 points a game, more like 18-21. So that means TD's are going to HAVE to converted. Less FG attempts and more TD's. I look at the other teams that need a QB and I see Seattle, who has a serviceable QB in their own right. Older, but still decent. Matt Hasselbeck. Now he does not have a contract so it looks like he may be out. Seattle is not too far away to repeat as division champs but I would forget about Kolb and Bring back Matt and Move on. Other than these two teams I dont see a team that couldn't get a Bulger, or a Young, or a Palmer(that's a whole different can of works, read past blog). I like Kolb enough to think he may have a shot at being able to maintain a team that ALREADY has a great defense and a strong runner. If you ask him to go full out West Coast Offense and throw the ball 25-30 times again. He WILL not be ready. There is the lock out meaning he most likely wont have a playbook until , oh....september! I just do not se him having a good first year and that can hurt the most important attribute in his head..his confidence. Once it's gone, it is hard to get it back. I hope Kolb will live up to the the hype, but  just do not see it.

Lets not forget what happened when the 49ers had the number 1 overall pick in 05 and it was thin to say the least. there were two guys who maybe would make it and that was Alex Smith and some guy out of cal,,,what was his name again, Oh yeah, Superbowl MVP Aaron Roders. The 49ers made the decision and have lived with it for years. Kolb will go to either, ARI, SEA, Miami. Teams with less than a 40% chance OAK,  SF,  CIN, CLE.  No matter who it ends up being there will be winners and losers . THE WINNERS" The Eagles and Kevin Kolb. The LOSERS, well I think you get it!

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